The (H)abyss

February 4, 2016 at 5:02 pm · Filed under Sports Musings and tagged: Habs

If anyone told me during the first period of that game at MSG in late November that by Groundhog Day the Habs would be on the outside of the Playoff Race looking in, I would have laughed so hard that I likely would have ruptured my spleen. At that point, the Habs looked like serious Cup Contenders. Scoring tons of goals, playing well at both ends of the ice, getting stellar goaltending and also going 5-2-2 without Carey Price. Plus, all those new-fangled analytical stats were excellent. To me, most importantly, they passed the “eye” test because everything I saw on the ice was so positive. The Habs were back on top.

Given the events since that moment, it’s not hard to agree that this team needs change but a complete overhaul? I disagree. There are flaws – perhaps none as deep as those between the their ears – but this team is not flawed. When things go bad for so long – it’s almost impossible to right the ship. This team played well for a long stretch after the 2^nd Price injury yet managed to keep losing in regulation which compounded the problem. They couldn’t even garner any “loser” points.  The advanced stats backed this up well into January, they were indeed playing well but with a PDO around 95, they had horrendous puck luck. Games against the Caps and Kings are prime examples. Eventually it had to change, the bad luck, horrible shooting and bad breaks would start going their way. But it didn’t – and as this progressed and the losses built up despite playing well, it was inevitable that their play would eventually suffer. The speed and instinctive plays got replaced with hesitation and a lack of confidence. The hole kept getting deeper and deeper until finally we are seeing a team that is so deep in the abyss that it likely can’t get out. And lately – specifically the games starting with the Blue Jackets – we can see that mentally this team is checking out, waiting for the other shoe to drop each game and when it does, it’s as difficult to overcome as it is to climb Everest.

These are not the real Canadiens. The real Canadiens have number 31 between the pipes just like the “real” Penguins include Sid the Kid taking the opening faceoff. Outside of the period in December where he was overworked due to a lack of confidence in Dustin Tokarski, Mike Condon has filled in admirably for the reigning MVP. But Price brings so much to the game that goes beyond the saves he makes. There is his rebound control and puck handling that saves the team from extra time in the defensive zone and additional goals against. And maybe most importantly, he provides his teammates with the confidence to take risks and not worry about making mistakes.

With all this in mind, here are some suggestions at re-tooling for next season.

I wasn’t happy to see him hired but Therrien 2.0 is a much better release than the previous version. I think I have finally been able to move on from his tirade against Carolina that cost the team a bench minor penalty that was the turning point in that playoff series in 2002. However, Therrien 2.0 has failed this year to adjust as the situation evolved. As the Coach, it is his responsibility to manage the situation to prevent this collapse. His player usage is suspect and his repeated pattern of falling back into comfortable patterns is a concern. It is a sign of someone who isn’t able to find the solution. I have no idea what goes on behind closed doors – I am not privy to that – but from an outside perspective, this team needs a new coach this summer, and possibly a new coaching staff (outside of goaltending coach Waite). They need someone that implements a system based on this team’s speed and mobility on the blue line with re-configured lines. It might not be fair to switch the coach given that it is likely his MVP goalie will only play 12 games this season but I can’t see how Therrien 2.0 is back next season.

As we look at the mix of players for 2016-17, let’s assume that this year’s first round back won’t be ready for the NHL next season.

1. If surgery is necessary for Price, the time is now. The Habs need to make sure that he is completely recovered for next season
2. Trade upcoming UFA’s Tom Gilbert & Tomas Fleischmann for draft picks by the deadline. I’d look to retain Dale Weise and Paul Byron for the bottom six
3. Don’t re-sign Ben Scrivens this summer
4. Trade David Desharnais for anything other than a player coming back and when that fails, buy him out this summer.
5. Target 1 top 6 winger UFA. As of today, Kyle Okposo would be my #1 target. Steven Stamkos doesn’t fit into the financial structure of this team. I’d look at Mikkel Boedker as Plan B.
6. I’d revisit the Drouin situation even though I don’t believe it can be done. Certain assets are off the table. The Habs draft picks in round 1 and round 2 this year, any ‘A’ level prospects (Scherbak, McCarron, Juulsen) and, of course, Galchenyuk are non-starters. Would Minnesota’s 2^nd round pick and Andrighetto be enough? I doubt it with Yzerman but I wouldn’t be giving up too much for someone that isn’t a guarantee.
7. Commit to Alex Galchenyuk as the #1 centre. He was drafted for this role, it’s time it happens.
8. Commit to Nathan Beaulieu on the top pairing with PK
9. Play Markov on the 3^rd pairing D but keep him on the #1 PP with PK

If these suggestions are achieved then the Habs could enter next season with the following lineup.

Pacioretty-Galchenyuk-Okposo

Drouin-Plekanec-Gallagher

Carr-Eller-Weise

Byron-Mitchell-Flynn

Also on Roster: Smith-Pelley, De La Rose

Beaulieu-Subban

Emelin-Petry

Markov-Barberio

Also on Roster: Pateryn

Price

Condon

Assuming this can realistically happen, which is not a given, do we feel that with the right system and coach that even this squad can compete for a Cup next season?

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